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calculated risk

American

noun

a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

calculated risk Idioms

A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

Example Sentences

Examples are provided to illustrate real-world usage of words in context. Any opinions expressed do not reflect the views of Dictionary.com.

"Risk is necessary -- but calculated risk, well-thought out risk and risk that you balance with others," Hansen responded.

From Barron's • Apr. 9, 2026

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily • Dec. 7, 2025

You increase the probability you will have good luck by taking calculated risk, smart risk.

From The Wall Street Journal • Nov. 6, 2025

If Midgley is right, then Sir Jacob could be patting himself on the back as his "calculated risk" pays off.

From BBC • Dec. 2, 2024

Finally, we decided to take a calculated risk.

From "Hollow City" by Ransom Riggs

Definitions and idiom definitions from Dictionary.com Unabridged, based on the Random House Unabridged Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2023