calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

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calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

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Example Sentences

The information may be used in a local area but cannot calculate mortality trends on a national level.

From BBC • Feb. 21, 2021

To calculate mortality trends over time, therefore, researchers adjust for the aging of the population.

From Scientific American • Feb. 15, 2020

They wrote also that the 127 study participants who were identified as strenuous joggers may have been too small a group to accurately calculate mortality risk.

From Chicago Tribune • Feb. 2, 2015