calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

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calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

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Example Sentences

"Risk is necessary -- but calculated risk, well-thought out risk and risk that you balance with others," Hansen responded.

From Barron's • Apr. 9, 2026

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily • Dec. 7, 2025

My calculated risk was worth taking: I was asked to run financial institutions, and my immediate instinct was, No, that is so boring.

From The Wall Street Journal • Nov. 6, 2025

"It seems to me that it wasn't a complete secret. It was probably a calculated risk," she says, adding the due diligence process "depends on the questions you ask".

From BBC • Sep. 29, 2024

But as her father said, sometimes you had to take a calculated risk in order to earn the payoff.

From "Time Bomb" by Joelle Charbonneau