law of averages

American  

noun

1. a statistical principle formulated by Jakob Bernoulli to show a more or less predictable ratio between the number of random trials of an event and its occurrences.

2. Informal. the principle that, in the long run, probability as naively conceived will operate and influence any one occurrence.

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law of averages British  

noun

1. (popularly) the expectation that a possible event is bound to occur regularly with a frequency approximating to its probability, as in the (actually false) example Compare law of large numbers

   after five heads in a row the law of averages makes tails the better bet

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law of averages Idioms  

1. The idea that probability will influence all occurrences in the long term, that one will neither win nor lose all of the time. For example, If it rains every day this week, by the law of averages we're bound to get a sunny day soon. This colloquial term is a popular interpretation of a statistical principle, Bernoulli's theorem, formulated in the late 1600s.

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Example Sentences

“It’s been a little bit tougher for me this year. Hopefully the law of averages says it’s going to get a little better.”

From Washington Times • Jun. 1, 2023

The law of averages suggests, after getting so many decisions wrong, they are scheduled to get one right and must hope the arrival of the highly regarded former Spurs manager is exactly that.

From BBC • May 29, 2023

“The more times you just put yourself in the position, the law of averages suggests that you’re going to get it done at some point,” McIlroy said.

From Seattle Times • Aug. 29, 2022

They’re a good offense, not a great offense, and the recent dip has been a combination of strong opponents and the law of averages catching up with them.

From Los Angeles Times • Nov. 2, 2021

The huge birds flapped frantically skyward, bumping into each other in their haste to flee, and perhaps one bird broke its wing against another bird, or perhaps—the law of averages notwithstanding—Bernabe actually hit one.

From "The Milagro Beanfield War" by John Nichols