calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

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calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

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Example Sentences

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily • Dec. 7, 2025

My calculated risk was worth taking: I was asked to run financial institutions, and my immediate instinct was, No, that is so boring.

From The Wall Street Journal • Nov. 6, 2025

Until this week, it seemed No 10's calculated risk of appointing Mandelson was paying off.

From BBC • Sep. 13, 2025

For the brand, the move was a calculated risk — and one they aren’t turning away from despite the divided viewer response.

From Salon • Nov. 24, 2024

She will stand out no matter how she fares, which is a calculated risk.

From "The Cruel Prince" by Holly Black