prior probability

noun

1. statistics the probability assigned to a parameter or to an event in advance of any empirical evidence, often subjectively or on the assumption of the principle of indifference Compare posterior probability

Example Sentences

The predictive value of a laboratory test is based on “prior probability,” the likelihood that the patient has a disease before testing has been performed.

Read more on Scientific American

“You just assign a prior probability to each of these models,” Kipping says.

Read more on Scientific American

So each hypothesis gets a prior probability of one half, much as if one were to flip a coin to decide a wager.

Read more on Scientific American

One fact is clear: if we assign a zero prior probability for such evidence coming our way, as some scientists did in the case of ‘Oumuamua by invoking the principle “it’s never aliens,” we will indeed never find any.

Read more on Scientific American

The problem is that researchers usually have no way of knowing what the prior probability is.

Read more on Nature