calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

---

calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

---

Example Sentences

"Risk is necessary -- but calculated risk, well-thought out risk and risk that you balance with others," Hansen responded.

From Barron's • Apr. 9, 2026

Was it a calculated risk or stubborn foolishness?

From Los Angeles Times • Feb. 9, 2026

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily • Dec. 7, 2025

You increase the probability you will have good luck by taking calculated risk, smart risk.

From The Wall Street Journal • Nov. 6, 2025

She will stand out no matter how she fares, which is a calculated risk.

From "The Cruel Prince" by Holly Black