calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

---

calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

---

Example Sentences

"Risk is necessary -- but calculated risk, well-thought out risk and risk that you balance with others," Hansen responded.

From Barron's • Apr. 9, 2026

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily • Dec. 7, 2025

You increase the probability you will have good luck by taking calculated risk, smart risk.

From The Wall Street Journal • Nov. 6, 2025

“O’Grady has stated that art ‘is the primary discipline where an exercise of calculated risk can regularly turn up what you had not been looking for,’” the biography on her website says.

From Los Angeles Times • Dec. 17, 2024

The Icelandic Chess Federation took a calculated risk in attempting to add strength to the argument for releasing Bobby.

From "Endgame" by Frank Brady