calculated risk

American  

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

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calculated risk Idioms  

1. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

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Example Sentences

"It doesn't sound like much, but everything in life is a calculated risk," Schmerr noted.

From Science Daily

You increase the probability you will have good luck by taking calculated risk, smart risk.

From The Wall Street Journal

My calculated risk was worth taking: I was asked to run financial institutions, and my immediate instinct was, No, that is so boring.

From The Wall Street Journal

In the end, Sachs’ calculated risk paid off.

From Los Angeles Times

Going in an unexpected direction that the four bandmates all love is an easy and somewhat calculated risk the band has earned at this point in its career — and one necessary in order to breathe new inspiration into its music while staying authentic to themselves.

From Los Angeles Times