calculated risk

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

Idioms and Phrases

A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

Example Sentences

Going in an unexpected direction that the four bandmates all love is an easy and somewhat calculated risk the band has earned at this point in its career — and one necessary in order to breathe new inspiration into its music while staying authentic to themselves.

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It’s a gamble for a party facing its lowest approval numbers since the Reagan era — and a calculated risk Democratic leaders felt feel compelled to take.

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Until this week, it seemed No 10's calculated risk of appointing Mandelson was paying off.

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England have really talented, skilful individuals and I would like to see them take a bit more calculated risk.

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They also blamed the city and utility for taking “a known, calculated risk” that private property would be damaged and destroyed by fire.

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