calculated risk

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

Idioms and Phrases

A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

Example Sentences

My calculated risk was worth taking: I was asked to run financial institutions, and my immediate instinct was, No, that is so boring.

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You increase the probability you will have good luck by taking calculated risk, smart risk.

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In the end, Sachs’ calculated risk paid off.

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Going in an unexpected direction that the four bandmates all love is an easy and somewhat calculated risk the band has earned at this point in its career — and one necessary in order to breathe new inspiration into its music while staying authentic to themselves.

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It’s a gamble for a party facing its lowest approval numbers since the Reagan era — and a calculated risk Democratic leaders felt feel compelled to take.

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