must-win

[ muhst-win ]

noun

a contest, project, scheme, etc., of which a successful or victorious outcome is essential because anything less would negate all preceding efforts: This game is a must-win for the Tigers, who will be out of the pennant race if they lose.Her grades were good enough for any college, but she knew the entrance essay was her must-win.

adjective

(of a contest, project, scheme, etc.) requiring a successful or victorious outcome because anything less would negate all preceding efforts: We’re now in a must-win situation—we either come in with the most attractive bid or we lose the building contract.

Origin of must-win

First recorded in 1985–90; noun use of phrase must win

Ohio is a must-win swing state for Republicans if they are to reclaim the White House.
John Kasich: The GOP’s Hobbled 2016 Dark Horse | W. James Antle III | November 3, 2014 | THE DAILY BEAST
Virginia, considered a must-win state for Mitt Romney, will be a leading indicator, he added.
Robert Gibbs Plans a Good Cry | Lloyd Grove | November 6, 2012 | THE DAILY BEAST
The point is that America is clearly and inevitably growing more diverse—especially in a handful of must-win swing states.
Obama’s Risky Demographic Gamble | John Avlon | October 25, 2012 | THE DAILY BEAST
In a state that's a must-win for Mitt, a conservative third-party candidate could throw the election to Obama.
Virginia Ex-Congressman Could Cost Romney the Election | Patricia Murphy | September 16, 2012 | THE DAILY BEAST
This would be a must-win for Christie if he hopes to run for president in 2016.
New Jersey’s Chris Christie and Cory Booker Swap Partisan Bickering for Collaboration | John Avlon | May 16, 2012 | THE DAILY BEAST

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